Synthetic biology and artificial intelligence are creating unprecedented opportunities for up- levelling the human condition. From disease prevention and cure to massive economic efficiencies, these tools are taking humanity into a world where science fiction becomes nonfiction. Yet these unprecedented opportunities come with unprecedented problems.
In 1945, the evolution of power projection through technology underwent a phase shift with the dropping of the nuclear bomb. Technological power shifted from having a greater and greater impact at the local level to having the capacity for global, existential demise.
Unprecedented opportunities come with unprecedented problems.
Though there have been several close calls, this exponential, existential power has thus far been limited to a single world event (WWII). Yet with AI and synthetic biology along with autonomous weapons, such global, destructive capacities are no longer centralized, and the game theory of mutually-assured destruction between states is no longer a sufficient Schelling point. Asymmetric power is being distributed away from state actors toward non-state actors, and this decentralization of asymmetric power runs the risk of spilling out over time. Even if the probability is low, taken across a long enough time scale means humanity no longer has to trust that nuclear weapons are not used (either purposefully or accidentally). But also that CRISPR and AI are not harnessed for destructive purposes at scale (be it targeting a specific race through genetically-engineered weapons, or a powerful AI/AGI system that optimizes for the wrong objective function, or creates deep fakes that have second and third-order social consequences).
Asymmetric power is being distributed away from state actors toward non-state actors, and this decentralization of asymmetric power runs the risk of spilling out over time.
Wisdom In the Exponential Age
Human wisdom is a necessary prerequisite in an age of exponential tech, which may also be read as an age of exponential power. As EO Wilson famously stated, “we have Palaeolithic emotions, medieval institutions and God-like technology.”
Given that human biology is programmed towards tribalism, our geopolitical systems are engineered with zero-sum incentives, and technology is becoming more and more “God-like”, how might we pass through what has been called in futurist circles The Great Filter?
One core proposition is that science and technology could itself support humanity in awakening from its Palaeolithic slumber. Rather than being the problem, exponential technology could also be (part of) the solution. For example, Julian Savalescu, a philosopher at the University of Oxford, proposes we use synthetic biology for ‘moral engineering,’ while the field of Consciousness Hacking proposes we use breakthroughs in AI and neuroscience to create tools that could support people in moving from fear-based, tribal states to those of flourishing and collective wellbeing. Meanwhile AGI systems may be able to construct incentive structures beyond the foresight of biological cognition that incentivize humanity to cooperate on a planetary scale in an omni-win way.
Human wisdom is a necessary prerequisite in an age of exponential tech, which may also be read as an age of exponential power.
As MIT scientist Max Tegmark points out, we are in a race between power and wisdom. Mature technologies require a mature civilisation in order to steward their potential.
By 2032, I foresee more and more technology-builders and policy-makers realizing the responsibility that comes with exponential power. Movements like Effective Altruism, and organizations like the Future of Humanity Institute, will become focal points in political and cultural discussions, and global cooperation will increase as countries and their citizens come to fully appreciate what is at stake.
Joshua Fields studies Human Development at Harvard Education School. He is the former Executive Director of Consciousness Hacking, a global community in 50+ cities that focuses on the intersection of technology and human flourishing, and co-founder of the Awakened Futures conference on psychedelics, technology and meditation. In a past life was an FXEM analyst at Morgan Stanley in London.
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